Selected Publications

“Quantitative Easing and Tapering Uncertainty: Evidence from Twitter”, with Annette Meinusch, International Journal of Central Banking, 2017, Vol 13, 227-258. A web appendix [PDF] contains additional results.

“The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR”, with Hongyi Chen and Kenneth Chow, China Economic Review, 2017, Vol. 43, 216-231.

“Does a Good Central Banker Make a Difference?”, with Matthias Neuenkirch,  Economic Inquiry, 2016, Vol. 54, 1541–1560 .

“Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Response of Emerging Markets”, Journal of International Money and Finance, special issue on “The New Normal in the Post-Crisis Era”, 2016, Vol. 66, 136-156.

“The Macroeconomic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks”, with Annette Meinusch, Journal of Macroeconomics, special issue on “What Monetary Policy Can and Cannot Do”, 2016, Vol. 47, 58-67.

“Estimating the Effects of Macroprudential Policy Shocks: A Qual VAR approach”, Economics Letters, 2015, Vol. 135, 1-4.

“The Changing Dynamics of US Inflation Persistence: A Quantile Regression Approach”, with Maik H. Wolters, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2015, Vol. 19, 161-182.

“Using Forecasts to Uncover the Loss Function of FOMC Members”, with Christian Pierdzioch and Jan-Christoph Rülke, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2016, Vol. 20, 791-818.

“The Dynamics of International Capital Flows: Results From a Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model”, with Marcel Förster and Markus Jorra, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, Vol. 48, 101-124. The paper has been covered here.

“Robust Monetary Policy, Optimal Delegation and Misspecified Potential Output”, Economics Letters, 2014, Vol. 123, 244-247.

“Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation”, with Marcel Förster, Open Economies Review, 2014, Vol. 25, 841-863.

“Inflation Targeting, Credibility and Non-Linear Taylor-Rules”, with Matthias Neuenkirch, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, Vol. 41, 30-45.

“Evaluating FOMC Forecast Ranges: An Interval Data Approach”, with Henning Fischer, Marta García-Bárzana and Peter Winker, Empirical Economics, 2014, Vol. 47, 365-388.

“Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2013, Vol. 37, 717-729.

“Cross-Checking Optimal Monetary Policy with Information from the Taylor Rule”, Economics Letters, 2012, Vol. 117, 204-207.

“Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence in Asia-Pacific”, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of Asian Economics, 2012, Vol. 23, 360-373.

“International Financial Integration and National Price Levels: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime”, with Mathias Hoffmann, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012, Vol. 31, 1503-1528.

“Has Inflation Persistence Changed Under EMU?”, German Economic Review, 2012, Vol. 13, 86-102.

“Do FOMC Members Herd?”, with Jan-Christoph Rülke, Economics Letters, 2011, Vol. 113, 176-179.

“Strategic Forecasting on the FOMC”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, Vol. 27, 547-553.

“Parameter Uncertainty and Non-Linear Monetary Policy Rules”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, Vol. 15, 184-200.

“The Fed’s Perceived Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual FOMC Forecasts”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, Vol. 32, 1008-1013.

“Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, Vol. 41, 885-906.

“The Stabilization Bias and Robust Monetary Policy Delegation”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2009, Vol. 31, 730-734.

“The Conservative Central Banker Revisited: Too Conservative is More Costly Than Too Liberal”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2008, Vol. 28, 941-741.

“The Time-Varying Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009, Vol. 28, 941-953.

“Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel”, Economica, 2009, Vol. 76, 486-504.

“Do Interest Rates Drive Inflation Dynamics? An Analysis of the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, Vol. 32, 2723-2744.

“Private Sector Involvement in the Resolution of Financial Crises: How Do Markets React?”, Journal of Development Economics, 2005, Vol. 78, 114-132.

“Information Disparities and the Probability of Currency Crises: Empirical Evidence”, Economics Letters, 2004, Vol. 84, 61-68.

“External Shocks and the Non-Linear Dynamics of Brady Bond Spreads”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 2004, Vol. 14, 439-454.

“The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials”, German Economic Review, 2003, Vol. 4, 409-431.

Other Publications

“The comovement of international capital flows: evidence from a dynamic factor model“, with Marcel Förster and Markus Jorra, in U. Volz (Ed.), Financial Stability in Emerging Markets – Dealing with Global Liquidity, German Development Institute (e-book), Bonn, 2012.

“Die schwierige Rückkehr der EZB zur Normalität: Ein Vorschlag”, with Martin Mandler, ifo Schnelldienst, 14/2011, 27-29.

“Das Securities Markets Programme der EZB: Ein Ressourcentransfer durch die Hintertür?”, with Martin Mandler, ifo Schnelldienst, 21/2010, 8-10.

“In den Tigerstaaten ist die Zeit der Wechselkursmanipulation längst vorbei”, with Stefan Gerlach, Börsen-Zeitung, October 22 2010.